ASML to Give Strong Outlook as AI Megadeals Drive Chip Equipment Demand

In Focus

• ASML will present third quarter results on Wednesday, October 15, 2025
• Dutch equipment maker set to give strong Q4 outlook driven by AI megadeals
• Analysts expect ASML to report growth in new bookings

Leading chip equipment maker ASML is expected to give a strong outlook when it presents its third quarter results on October 15, 2025. According to Reuters, the outlook will be driven largely by ASML’s megadeals with chip manufacturers and AI firms.

Why is ASML Seeing Higher Demand Now?

Major AI deals and expectations of large-scale data center expansion have rallied ASML chip equipment demand. Top U.S. companies like Tesla, OpenAI, and Meta have announced deals with chip suppliers like AMD, Samsung, and Intel this year. Tesla signed a $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung to power its AI ambitions.

OpenAI signed a chip deal with AMD that will see the chipmaker supply the ChatGPT maker with AI chips. Under the deal, OpenAI will acquire and deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs over several years and in different hardware generations. OpenAI has the option of getting a 10% stake in AMD.

The AI startup has also partnered with Samsung and SK Hynix to supply chips for the Stargate Project. These deals indicate rising demand for ASML tools, which are critical in the development of chip circuitry. ASML shares have gained 32% since September 2025.

Growth in New Bookings Expected

ASML’s bookings growth and demand forecast are expected to increase in the third quarter, with analysts expecting the Dutch firm to report 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) in new orders. New bookings are closely monitored in the AI industry. In the first half of 2025, ASML attracted 9.48 billion euros in new orders.

Analysts also expect the chip equipment maker to report a slight 1.4% increase in net income to reach 2.11 billion euros compared to last year as ASML benefits from AI investments.

In July 2025, weaknesses at ASML’s major customers like Intel and Samsung prompted the company’s management to express uncertainty about growing revenue in 2026. But the chip market has rebounded.

“It’s clear that the sentiment has changed, management will need to give some indication of what they are seeing in the market,” Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero said.

Can Chip Makers Speedup Expansion Plans?

As ASML announces its third quarter results, investors and analysts will be looking to hear how top customers plan to expand their capacity starting 2026. Analysts expect TSMC and SK Hynix to expand chip production capacity.

“Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI. Micron, SK Hynix , Samsung, even Chinese players,” Degroof Petercam Analyst Michael Roeg said.

Some of ASML customers have already started to construct manufacturing plants, which will take years to complete. For example, TSMC invested $65 billion in the construction of giant plants in Arizona in the U.S. Completion of the Arizona plant has been delayed due to complex local construction regulations, compliance issues, and permission requirements.

Analysts and investors will be seeking to understand how chipmakers can accelerate their capacity expansion plans.

A Sneak Preview of ASML Q3 Results

• Dutch chip equipment maker expected to report $6.21 billion in new bookings
• ASML’s net income expected to increase by 1.4% increase, reaching 2.11 billion euros
• ASML stock gained 32% since September 2025

ASML Continues to Expand Order Fulfillment Capacity

ASML chip making tools are the most expensive in a chip factory, costing $300 million or more per piece. However, they have a long delivery wait time of 8 to 12 months. Chip manufacturers have to weigh the risk of ordering ASML machines.

Placing orders too early could tie capital, and late orders could delay chip production. During the COVID pandemic, demand outpaced supply and ASML’s backlog grew sharply. The company has been expanding its production capacity since.