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Published on
October 31, 2025
5 min read
Apple Forecasts 10 to 12% Revenue Growth in the Holiday Quarter
In Focus
- Apple projects a 10-12% revenue growth in Q1 2026
- Growth will be driven by strong iPhone 17 demand
- iPhone sales dipped in Q4 due to supply constraints
Apple’s holiday quarter forecast for iPhone sales and overall revenue has surpassed Wall Street expectations. According to Reuters, Apple is working to fulfill iPhone 17 series orders in the holiday quarter amid supply constraints. The tech company’s stock surged 3.7% in after-hours trading on October 30, 2025.
Apple’s Holiday Quarter Outlook
Apple CEO Tim Cook said the tech giant expects iPhone sales to grow significantly in the holiday quarter driven by Apple iPhone 17 demand. Tim Cook projected a 10-12% year-on-year growth in Apple’s overall revenue in its first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year.
Apple’s revenue growth forecast for Q1 2026 exceeds analyst estimates, which stand at 6.6% growth in total sales. Analysts expect iPhone sales to grow by 9.8% in the holiday quarter to reach the $75.91 billion mark.
Apple’s total revenue for the fourth quarter amounted to $102.47 billion, compared to the $102.26 billion projected by analysts. The company reported $1.85 in earnings per share against the $1.77 per share projection.
How are Supply Constraints Affecting Apple’s iPhone 17 Shipments?
According to Tim Cook, Apple supply constraints for iPhone 17 models as well as several iPhone 16 models affected sales in the fourth quarter.
Apple unveiled iPhone 17 models in September 2025. The tech giant has experienced delays in introducing its thinnest phone, iPhone Air model, in the Chinese market. Apple’s iPhone Air delay caused China sales to dip, but the tech giant is currently focused on resolving the supply constraints.
“Currently in Q1, we’re experiencing supply constraints still on several models of the iPhone 17, and we’re filling orders just as fast as we can. It’s a good problem to have,” Tim Cook said.
Apple Holiday Quarter Forecast at a Glance
- Apple experienced delays taking iPhone Air to China
- Analysts expect iPhone sales to grow by 9.8% in Q1
- Stock surged 3.7% on October 30, 2025
iPhone Sales Dipped in Q4
In the fourth quarter, Apple reported $49.03 billion in iPhone sales revenue, which was lower than the expected $50.19 billion. Data from Visible Alpha showed iPhone sales in the Greater China region amounted to $14.49 billion against the $16.24 billion projected by analysts.
“My expectation is that iPhone Air sales are likely weak, but iPhone base and Pro models are stronger than expectations. Guidance (was) better than expectation. 10-12 percent growth is strong,” Gabelli Funds Research Analyst Ryuta Makino said.
Apple’s market valuation briefly hit the $4 trillion mark on October 28, 2025 as iPhone 17 models revitalized sales. Investors view U.S.- China trade tensions and delays in AI rollout as the major risks for Apple. But Q4 results show these factors had less impact compared to supply chain constraints.
